Image Credit: Joan Marcus (top), Paul Kolnik
Here’s the easiest prediction we can make about this year’s Tony Awards, which will be presented June 12 at NYC’s Beacon Theatre: Spider-Man Turn Off the Dark will be a recurring punchline for returning host Neil Patrick Harris. The CBS broadcast will also manage to include a number from this still-to-officially-open show, featuring composers Bono and the Edge as well as on-stage Spidey Reeve Carney. Predicting the actual awards isn’t nearly as easy. But in a lot of the major categories, there seem to be some very strong front-runners. Expect The Book of Mormon (pictured left, top) to sweep most of the musical categories, and the British import War Horse (pictured left, bottom) to pick up a fair share of the dramatic awards. Fellow EW critic Melissa Rose Bernardo and I here offer our predictions in all the Tony categories (you’ll see our names after each of our picks). Disagree? Please let us know who you think will win — or should win — in the comments section. (For more Stage coverage, go to EW.com’s Stage hub.)
Best Musical
The Book of Mormon (Melissa, Thom)
Catch Me if You Can
The Scottsboro Boys
Sister Act
The irreverent hit from South Park creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker is a sure thing.
Best Play
Good People (Melissa)
Jerusalem
The Motherf—er With the Hat
War Horse (Thom)
There’s a bit of a horse race in this category, with the equine drama War Horse considered the front-runner for its impressive physical production (if not its rather conventional plotting and dialogue). But some voters seem to be rallying around the smart American scripts of David Lindsay Abaire’s Good People and Stephen Adly Guigis’ The Motherf—er With the Hat. If there’s an upset, look for Good People to win by a nose.
Best Revival of a Musical
Anything Goes (Melissa, Thom)
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Best Revival of a Play
Arcadia
The Importance of Being Earnest
The Merchant of Venice
The Normal Heart (Melissa, Thom)
Larry Kramer’s AIDS-era drama should dominate, though Earnest could sneak by.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Bobby Cannavale, The Motherf—er With the Hat
Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
Al Pacino, The Merchant of Venice
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem (Melissa, Thom)
Mark Rylance, a Tony winner in 2008 for the comedy Boeing-Boeing, also earned raves this season for his role as a foppish idiot in La Bête opposite David Hyde Pierce. He is memorably menacing in the British drama Jerusalem.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Nina Arianda, Born Yesterday (Melissa)
Frances McDormand, Good People (Thom)
Lily Rabe, The Merchant of Venice
Vanessa Redgrave, Driving Miss Daisy
Hannah Yelland, Brief Encounter
Nina Arianda has won raves for her Broadway debut, but Frances McDormand should pick up her first Tony for her moving performance in Good People.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can (Melissa)
Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Joshua Henry, The Scottsboro Boys
Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
This may be the most competitive race this year. Norbert Leo Butz is beloved, but his role is relatively small for a lead. Joshua Henry delivered the best performance, but his show has closed. Tony Sheldon has won over a lot of critics and Tony voters in recent weeks (though I personally found his turn a bit thin and cloying). And the chief Mormon missionaries may split the vote, though I give Josh Gad the edge since his character is a bit showier.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes (Melissa, Thom)
Beth Leavel, Baby It’s You!
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture
Sutton Foster, a Tony winner for 2002′s Thoroughly Modern Millie, is a safe bet here, though there’s a good deal of esteem for Patina Miller’s turn in the Whoopi Goldberg role in Sister Act.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Mackenzie Crook, Jerusalem
Billy Crudup, Arcadia
John Benjamin Hickey, The Normal Heart (Melissa, Thom)
Arian Moayed, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Yul Vázquez, The Motherf—er With the Hat
Hickey delivers a powerful performance as the AIDS-infected boyfriend of the lead character in The Normal Heart. Potential upset: Yul Vázquez, as the not-completely butch cousin in that comedy with the unprintable title.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Ellen Barkin, The Normal Heart (Melissa)
Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves (Thom)
Judith Light, Lombardi
Joanna Lumley, La Bête
Elizabeth Rodriguez, The Motherf—er With the Hat
Ellen Barkin has gotten most of the limelight, but I found her performance a bit too shrill. I’m going with Edie Falco in the role that won Swoozie Kurtz a Tony in 1986.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Colman Domingo, The Scottsboro Boys
Adam Godley, Anything Goes
John Larroquette, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Forrest McClendon, The Scottsboro Boys
Rory O’Malley, The Book of Mormon (Melissa, Thom)
Expect another Mormon triumph here, though John Laroquette has his admirers.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown (Melissa)
Tammy Blanchard, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Victoria Clark, Sister Act
Nikki M. James, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Patti LuPone, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Laura Benanti was the best thing about the short-lived Women on the Verge, but I’m looking at a Mormon sweep.
Best Direction of a Play
Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, War Horse (Melissa, Thom)
Joel Grey & George C. Wolfe, The Normal Heart
Anna D. Shapiro, The Motherf—er With the Hat
Daniel Sullivan, The Merchant of Venice
It may not be the best-written play in the field, but it’s easily the most impressive production.
Best Direction of a Musical
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker, The Book of Mormon (Melissa, Thom)
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
Not even close.
Best Choreography
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes (Melissa, Thom)
Casey Nicholaw, The Book of Mormon
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
A competitive race since there was a lot of great dance this year, but the tap-tastic first-act finale of Anything Goes gives Kathleen Marshall the edge.
Best Book of a Musical
Alex Timbers, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone, The Book of Mormon (Melissa, Thom)
David Thompson, The Scottsboro Boys
Cheri Steinkellner, Bill Steinkellner and Douglas Carter Beane, Sister Act
Best Original Score Written for the Theater
Trey Parker, Robert Lopez and Matt Stone, The Book of Mormon (Melissa)
John Kander and Fred Ebb, The Scottsboro Boys (Thom)
Alan Menken (music) and Glenn Slater (lyrics), Sister Act
David Yazbek, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
The Mormon team is likely to win, unless there’s a sentimental vote for the final collaboration of the legendary Kander and Ebb.
Best Scenic Design of a Play
Todd Rosenthal, The Motherf—er With the Hat
Rae Smith, War Horse (Melissa, Thom)
Ultz, Jerusalem
Mark Wendland, The Merchant of Venice
War Horse will win for the life-size horse puppets alone.
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Beowulf Boritt, The Scottsboro Boys
Derek McLane, Anything Goes
Scott Pask, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Donyale Werle, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson (Melissa)
The short-lived Andrew Jackson‘s set was bloody impressive (including a seeming horse carcass hanging over the audience), but I suspect voters will reward the year’s biggest current hit.
Best Costume Design of a Play
Jess Goldstein, The Merchant of Venice
Desmond Heeley, The Importance of Being Earnest (Thom)
Mark Thompson, La Bête
Catherine Zuber, Born Yesterday (Melissa)
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Tim Chappel and Lizzy Gardiner, Priscilla Queen of the Desert (Melissa, Thom)
Martin Pakledinaz, Anything Goes
Ann Roth, The Book of Mormon
Catherine Zuber, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Tim Chappel and Lizzy Gardiner won an Oscar for their work on the film version of Priscilla (where Gardiner memorably wore a dress made of American Express gold cards); expect another trip to the podium for the duo for their witty, eye-catching work.
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Paule Constable, War Horse (Melissa, Thom)
David Lander, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Kenneth Posner, The Merchant of Venice
Mimi Jordan Sherin, Jerusalem
War Horse should continue its sweep of technical categories.
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Ken Billington, The Scottsboro Boys (Melissa)
Howell Binkley, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Peter Kaczorowski, Anything Goes
Brian MacDevitt, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Best Sound Design of a Play
Acme Sound Partners & Cricket S. Myers, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Simon Baker, Brief Encounter (Melissa)
Ian Dickinson for Autograph, Jerusalem
Christopher Shutt, War Horse (Thom)
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Peter Hylenski, The Scottsboro Boys (Melissa)
Steve Canyon Kennedy, Catch Me If You Can
Brian Ronan, Anything Goes
Brian Ronan, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Best Orchestrations
Doug Besterman, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Larry Hochman, The Scottsboro Boys (Melissa)
Larry Hochman and Stephen Oremus, The Book of Mormon (Thom)
Marc Shaiman & Larry Blank, Catch Me If You Can
One thing’s for certain: Larry Hochman will pick up his first-ever Tony, either for the juggernaut Book of Mormon or for the sentimental favorite The Scottsboro Boys.
Pretty much agree with everything here…even the split votes.
Priscilla was snubbed BIG TIME.
Agreed, but with the nominations as they are, I think the predictions are probably correct.
What do you think it was snubbed in? I think its nominations are pretty accurate.
Talk about feast (this year) or famine (most other years). Priscilla is just one of several musicals that in any other year would have been vying for best musical. But with so many GOOD musicals this year (how long has it been since we’ve been able to say that???), there had to be casualties. At least Priscilla is still running, unlike Scotsboro and Bloody Bloody.
Priscilla: La Cage Aux Folles, Part 2
Amazing that Rylance wasn’t nominated for La Bete when that would have been a winning performance in many other years.
I kind of think his nomination for Jerusalem is an unofficial nomination for both. He was off the charts in La Bete, so hilarious.
Mackenzie Crook does an amazing job in Jerusalem.
Still cant believe Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson wasn’t even nominated for best musical. I know it didn’t last long, but still excellent.
Norbert Leo Butz may have had the smaller lead role in Catch Me If You Can, but he was by far the best part of what I thought was a pretty darn good musical. He was absolutely fantastic and totally deserves to win.
I liked Nikki James a lot in Book of Mormon, but I don’t think she stands a shot against Laura Benanti. Benanti has the triumph-against-adversity story with her 10-year injury, and she’s also the only thing anybody remembers about “Women on the Verge.”
(And go, Sutton Foster!!)
10 year injury? What happened?
And yeah, go Sutton! You rock!
During the revival of Into the Woods about 10 years ago, Benanti (as Cinderella) had to fall down a flight of stairs. She hurt her neck really badly — I think might have actually broken her neck and had the injury misdiagnosed — and then she had a decade of surgeries to try to recover. I really truly love Laura Benanti’s performance of “Model Behavior” and I would be so happy to see her win a Tony for it.
Thanks for responding, had no idea.
I would have cheered even harder for her when I saw “Gypsy” and then subsequently been more psyched for her Tony win!
I agree totally. I’m a college student in California, so I can’t quite afford to go see the shows themselves, but judging from the cast recordings and the performances at the Drama Desk Awards, Benanti was marvelous. As much as I love Book Of Mormon, I think she has this sewn up.
Benanti was indeed the best part of what was otherwise a pretty mediocre play.
Man would I like to see Nikki James win, though, She’s worked SO hard to get where she is, and she is such a class act (on stage and off). What a moment that would be for her to say she beat Patti LuPone! (I loved Benanti in Women, but she kind of rubs me the wrong way… so I’m rooting for the charming Nikki!)
Nikki James is great, and I love her delivery of her ballad, “Sal Tlay Ka Siti.” (So, by the way, is Victoria Clark, who is brilliant in everything she does!) But I think Benanti is just amazing in “Women on the Verge,” and I suspect voters will see her as elevating the material she was given.
I am still so disappointed that Daniel Radcliffe wasn’t nominated. It is just fantastic to watch him sing and dance in this play. He really brings it all to this show. To have nominated John Larroquette leaves me scratching my head. Nothing special about his performance.
The thing is that the Tony Awards got a lot of flack for giving most of the major acting awards to Hollywood stars last year. I mean, I love Catherine Zeta-Jones, but I don’t think she should have won, and I don’t think Scarlett Johansson should’ve won either. So unfortunately Daniel Radcliffe and Robin Williams-both of whom deserved to be nominated-got shut out.
VERY good point!
Also, don’t forget the Lead Actor in both Play and Musical categories were very tight, and it’s hard to eliminate anyone to include those two. That said, I agree Radcliffe deservd a nomination – he was wonderful.
@MADD – very true. They are suffering for previous Tony crimes (i.e. Hollywood a**-kissing). Daniel Radcliffe is not an air0lifted celebrity, he’s an actor in this for the long haul, definitely. He’ll get his Tony.
That said, it’s a shame there are not more noms — and NO predicted wins??? — for the delightful, high-emnergy, hilarious HOW TO SUCCEED IN BUSINESS.
Still, highly recommended. SEE THIS PLAY!
FIVE EMMYS.
Just sayin’.
Here is the thing. Daniel Radcliffe did his best in a lead role. No one denies he puts everything into his performance, and it is good, but still it is not the BEST performance by a lead this year. It isn’t even in the top five. He gets a lot more recognition BECAUSE he is a celebrity, but that doesn’t mean he should get a nomination. If anyone got snubbed in this category this year it is Benjamin Walker who was positively electric in Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson. I am sorry Radcliffe fans, but just because you gave it your best effort does not mean you should get the highest award Broadway grants when other people put all their effort into it as well, and gave better performances.
Dan’s performance was better than John Larroquette. They could have swapped John with Dan.
Agreed. The guy sang and danced his heart out, but his voice is not the strongest. If there was an award for Most Fun Had by a Leading Actor, he’d get that. If anyone got snubbed this year in that category it was Aaron Tveit (I loved Norbert Leo Butz as well, but Aaron is terrific and is truly the lead actor in the show).
I would LOVE to see Daniel Radcliffe and Robert Morse on stage together and sing a bit of “Grand Ole Ivy” or anything from “How To succeed”.
Thanks for the heads-up on what will be playing in Midwest theaters in 2014.
disagree with your best musical pick. i really think catch me if you can will do well
Are you serious?
Has anyone listened to the “Catch Me If You Can” orchestrations? Easily the best of the year.
Completely agree, Owen.
I would LOVE it if Norbert Leo Butz won, but I agree Josh Gad will probably take it.
Good coverage, and I know that Broadway isn’t the most mainstream thing in the world, but for the love of God can we get the late FRED Ebb’s name right?
Anyone wonder why Julie James on Sirius can’t say the full title of Mother… with the Hat? And how many people are going to mess up come Tony night? Let’s create a drinking game.
Edie Falco was terrific and easily the best thing about the HoBL revival, but it’s a shame that Judith Light’s performance is in the same category. Judith Light did SO much with a very understated role. I’m sad she won’t win.
I don’t even understand the lack of Good People acting nominations — why Estelle Parsons and Renee Elise Goldsberry didn’t get nominated is beyond me.
I agree about Edie Falco. I wasn’t crazy about the production itself, but she was superb, and Ben Stiller was pretty good too.
These are just predictions. I still think Judith has a great chance. And I’m so sick of Edie Falco. She’s not ten times the actress Judith is, sorry. And Judith was just amazing in Lombardi. I saw it twice.
The Tony Awards haven’t even happened and I am already bored with them, not interested in The Book of Mormon so there goes that.
What an odd thing to say. The show is about so much more than the awards themselves. “The Book of Mormon” will perform ONE number from the show…and each of the other nominated musicals (and revivals) will also perform one song each; so it’s 5-1 with the non “Mormon” songs winning!!! Now, if you said you couldn’t stand Neil Patrick Harris… then maybe I’d understand you not being interested in watching… but it’s one show. And I didn’t even mention the non-musicals.