Are the DVD’s days numbered? Two new recent developments are likely to affect most pop culture consumers. Wal-Mart unveiled its own video download service (first available title is the new-to-DVD Superman Returns, pictured), while the CEO of Regal Cinemas said Wednesday that Regal won’t allow the window between a film’s theatrical and DVD release dates to close completely.
But is this really a big deal? Um… yeah. Wal-Mart accounts for a full 40 percent of U.S. DVD sales, and Regal is the country’s largest theater chain (they were also the first to have pretzel bites, if memory serves). In other words, what these guys do affects millions of PopWatchers across the old U.S. of A.
But why, you ask quite logically, would Wal-Mart want to cut intoits DVD sales by offering films for downloading? Glad you asked: theydon’t. The movie download only comes (at a extra fee) with yourpurchase of the physical disc, the idea being that you can — for onelow, low Wal-Mart price — watch Superman Returnson your TV, your laptop, and your video iPod. But this just seems likeWal-Mart is aware of the slippery slope ofDVDs and downloading: it’s only a matter of time before the discsthemselves become obsolete. As stagnating DVD sales show, Americans areincreasingly curling up with an iBook and a mug of Swiss Miss insteadof plunking themselves in front of the plasma screen.
Getting in the car and driving to the multiplex is also anincreasingly unpopular option. The thing I hear again and again fromfriends is: why go to the theater when the movie will be out on DVD ina month? (That’s an exaggeration, of course. The average lag time isfour to five months, according to Regal CEO Michael Campbell. But itused to be six.) If a studio wants to release a DVD too soon after thetheatrical release, Campbell says, Regal might just refuse to show it(oh, it’s so on!). If theaters get their way, DVD sales are going tokeep tumbling, and manufacturing physical discs isn’t going to makemuch business sense anymore (see: CDs vs. iTunes). Wal-Mart (going theway of Apple and Amazon) could sell downloads without having to “pay”someone (I was going to try and keep my disdain for the big W-M out ofthis, but whatever) to crank out the discs.
Finally, a (brief) historical perspective: DVDs have only beenaround since 1997 and didn’t surpass VHS sales until 2003. 2003! Yetonce discs trumped tapes, the latter medium went the way of thedinosaur alarmingly fast (the above statistics are from Variety’s clever VHS obituary).Downloading files seemed poised to gobble up DVDs even quicker. Butwhat do you think, PopWatchers? Am I wrong? Am I not giving Netflix’s quest for world domination enough credit? Sound off on how you think you’ll be watching your collection of Wire episodes in 2010.
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DRM issues will keep me away from downloading movies the same way it keeps me away from downloading music. Call me paranoid, but I don’t trust that crap.
I buy CDs. I buy DVDs. Big Brother, stay the hell off my machine.
We have a 90 inch projection TV. Do I want to give that up to watch downloaded movies on my ipod? NO! I hope this is a Chicken Little moment going on here.
Aren’t those statistics skewed? When DVD came out, for a year I rebought all the movies I loved the most. My extra cash didn’t go to shoes or music or (eep) savings, it went to restocking my movie library. I’m sure I’m not the only person who did this. Do the stats account for such a surge in sales? If not, maybe sales aren’t really slagging.
Most people that shop at Wal-Mart can’t afford extra’s like Ipods and computer downloads. I see this failing just like their foray into the DVD rentals by mail did.
At this point, putting these two together is a little nonsensical. Downloads will eventually doom DVDs, but only when HD on-demand is routinely available. One of the big reasons theater attendance is down is the rapidly improving quality of home presentation. One of the hottest holiday items is a big-screen plasma TV. Why spend $2K on that and then watch the latest flicks on your iPod? Once broadband makes HD downloads available, though, it’s over.
I read “obituaries” for the cd several years ago. They also said that used cd/dvd stores would go the way of the dodo thanks to downloads and ipods. While I do agree that the businesses are probably on the decline, the rapidly decreasing cost of tv shows on dvd (I recently saw Sopranos dvd sets selling NEW for $45. Compare that to prices as high as $100 a year ago) will probably attract some new consumers and keep the digital discs around for a few more years.
And movie downloads are still pretty big in terms of harddrive space required for them, so it’s not like we can keep massive libraries in our pcs or ipods. As collectors and creatures of habit, many of us will want to keep entire seasons of shows instead of just some key eps.
On the SUperman Returns tip, while watching it, look out for the scenes when Superman super stalks his ex girlfriend, tries to get her to commit super adultery, AND that extra special scene when he super breaks and enters into lois lane’s house and has a super creepy moment of checking out her son while the kid is sleeping. Superman or super felon? You decide
Well, playing music on my computer is one thing…I don’t particularly like watching movies on it, or on the tiny screens of portable devices. However, I rarely buy DVDs because I usually just watch them once, so I joined Netflix.
If DVD was on the way out, we wouldn’t be seeing HD DVD and Blu-Ray movies being released.
I’m not worried a bit.
I can’t, for the life of me, understand why anyone would want to watch a movie on a computer screen, much less on an iPod or cellphone screen. But this is coming from a guy who was really shocked that people would talk on the phone more or less all the time if given the opportunity.
My guess is that both DVDs and downloading will be available as long as the market will support both. Right now, tv shows are being downloaded and DVD’d and a lot of the shows are in syndication for free.
As for Superman Returns, there was a bigger crime than breaking and entering, it was boring.
Out here in the sticks (well, Middle America), I still know a lot of people who are figuring out how to work their DVD players. I can’t imagine how long it would take for them to figure out how to download a movie, burn it to a disk and then watch it. The template these doomsayers seem to be following is the rise of iPods and their effect on the music industry. But the sad truth is we live in an age in which CDs are essentially singles collections with lots of filler. The equivalent for DVD would be downloading a favorite scene or chapter. And I don’t think that’s going to happen. The model they should be looking at is the rise of internet shopping. Ten years ago they said it would take the place of malls all over America. But people like to hold stuff in their hands before they purchase. So now there’s really only a select group of consumers who make online purchases regularly and the rest get in line at WalMart.
Oh, and one more thing! My local DVD store has scrapped their HDDVD and BluRay sections due to lack of interest.
Ditto pretty much everything that’s been said here, though I’m still switching over some videos to DVDs (because I like to buy shoes). Why would I want to watch a movie on a really puny screen?
By the way, Wal-Mart is evil.
According to the website, the Superman Returns download will not work on an Ipod. Anyways, when I want to watch a movie, I want to see it on a 42″ plasma with 5.1 Dolby Digital sound, not on a little 17″ with computer speakers.
Amen Bob G! 5.1 surround sound and a big screen tv, good friends, the lights dimmed and the sound on hella loud because the neighbors are out is an experience that no computer screen has been able to reproduce, at least not for me.
shut up
Hopefully, WalMart will read these comments and realize that most people do not want to watch movies on puny little screens or take up their computers space with a two hour movie. Every time “they” try to shove some new technology down our throats, Im glad to see everyone doesnt rush out to buy the “new” and chuck “the old”. Im mad about the VCR going down, as people like my parents are reluctant to buy a DVD so they will just watch the old stuff they have, since they cant watch new movies. Plus, not everyone has a TIVO and people still record stuff on VCRs. Wake Up WalMART! People with little money shop at your stores! Let some fancy store do something new and expensive… stick with what works… if it aint broke… why fix it?
I’m so glad many other people are not enchanted by the idea of watching movies on computer screens or video iPods. I can’t even muster an interest in watching an entire TV episode online.
I want the hard disc. Downloading is fine for those with high-speed connections. However, things can go wrong with downloads; computers can crash. Keep the hard discs around, I say.
Also, with the downloading, is copying to hard disc permitted? On a purely superficial note, I still prefer to see the artwork of a DVD box and disc. I continue to cringe a bit whenever I see a DVD cover that’s plain (no cover at all or gray/silver).
Brandon Routh is soooooo hot. I just saw Superman the other day… I was drulling over him. What was this blog about again?
True movie people will ALWAYS want to own a PHYSICAL copy of the film the same way that music people want to own CDs or vinyl. The idea of downloading movies (and music as well) works only as a way of testing the waters. I’ll download MP3s and (if ever I own a computer with enough memory) even movies, but only to see whether or not I want to go out and purchase the product. Having a movie sitting on my hard-drive gives me no sense of ownership. I need to touch it…I need to appreciate the packaging and the extras. There is no comparing a downloaded copy of Fellowship of the Ring to opening the 4-disc bohemoth that is the Collector’s Edition.
That being said, no matter what technology comes along, there will always be some physical product available for people like me that are willing to pay $40 for the Criterion Collection copy of a movie. My guess, the next big in thing for both music and movies will be the individual flash drive. Instead of CDs and DVDs, movies and music will be put on USB flash drives, then packaged in the usual way. CD players and DVD players will eventually include USB ports as well as all cars. That way, things like iPods will be able to be used on everyday equipment but you will also be able to plug in an individual album or a movie and not have to deal with the middle-manager that is the home PC. I imagine videogames will also benefit from this technology.
I’m a big geek, so I’ll always go for the physical discs with extra features and commentaries.
Sorry, but I doubt that downloading movies will catch on, at least like music downloads have.
Is it so hard to go to the store and buy a DVD? Or click on Amazon to mail it to you? And once you buy it, you can keep it forever.
With a download, it only exists on your computer. If that crashes, or you get a new one, you don’t have it any more. Not to mention all the different copy protections the eventual download will have on it.
And who wants to sit in front of their computer and watch a movie? Or even on an Ipod?
If Joe and Jane Sixpack are having trouble figuring out the difference between getting a widescreen or fullscreen DVD, do you think they are going to be able to download a film onto their computer and then network the computer to their TV? Or burn it to DVD? Why the hassle when you can buy many DVDs in the $5-$10 range.
I really doubt this will catch on.
Bob and Ep, I totally agree that the kickin’ home theater is the optimal way for watching a movie AT HOME. But for me, nothing beats watching a good movie in the theater on a 20′ high screen (and no, I don’t work for a movie studio).
BTW, all the Superman Returns comments here are dead on. It was easily the most disappointing film that I saw this year.
I’ve gotta say that the idea of watching a movie or TV show on my computer is ridiculous! Unless you have state-of-the-art sound equipment with a gigantic computer plasma screen, it just doesn’t make sense. I downloaded an episode of Prison Break back in September because I missed it. Watching it on my computer screen was downright uncomfortable.
And you know what the other issue is? Studios constantly double-dipping! How many versions of Monty Python and the Holy Grail have come out? And Star Wars?
I graduated from college with honors, receiving a BA and also had a minor. I landed a job in my field. The problem? It pays crap. I can’t afford any big, nice computers (actually the nice laptop I had crashed after the warranty expired, so just a cheap, low-memory computer now), I have no modem and use cheap dial-up (I’d be lucky to even download a movie without it quitting on me). I don’t buy that many DVDs these days due to the income situation, but I do on occassion, and also rent, for buying five DVDs a year costs much less than what I’d need to download and watch videos with good quality video and audio (did I mention I can only hear the audio on my computer through my headphones?). The TV I have isn’t big; I won it at afterprom my junior year… but it’s still bigger than my computer screen. So unless someone wants to hand over some free stuff to me or help me land a better-paying job (four years of crappy raises, yay), then I really hope the DVD’s not dead yet. Heck, I still use my VCR because I can’t afford Tivo. And under the Bush administration when they voted not to raise the minimum wage, and the middle class started to disappear as the gap widened between the lower and upper classes, I think the majority of America would still like to use DVDs for a while more as well.
I’ll download big budget movies on the internet to stay away from the mainstream crowds. But there’s nothing like going to the local Laemmle Theater where independents bring a more sophisticated crowd.
DVD’s and CD’s already had a shelf life when they first came out, I would much rather see the technology go to portable memory sticks.
I dunno, I think that this “Death Watch” theory is BS. Downloading movies on people’s iPod doesn’t have enough influence to kill the medium alltogether! Plus, rentals have too much of an influence on the market. The DVD has been around for less than 10 years, and it is not going anywhere.
Did you guys run a DVD Death Watch when Amazon’s unBox started, since it’s just about the same thing(only LESS movies from Wal-Mart)…
Just wait until it comes out Wal-Mart is going to be watching your every move (like Amazon does… like the Army does if you get their game).
Supes Returns was sweet and nostalgic but I won’t be converting to downloads over DVDs anytime soon. I love my DVDs. I have an ipod and the time it takes to download TV shows, shorts, or movies alone onto this device is a turn-off. With that much time, I could have been half way through my DVD!
Bunch of garbage. DVD sales have leveled off due to market saturation, but people will always want hard copies of their favorites on disc, whether it is a CD, DVD, or HD-DVD. As Jael also pointed put, those of us with big high-def TVs and surround sound home theatres are never going to want to watch movies on a puny IPod or laptop. Get real, and stop with the spreading the doom and gloom to get attention to your column.