There’s only 111 days until the Academy Awards, and now that EW’s Dave Karger has spilled the beans about this year’s early Oscar front-runners, it’s time to let the prognosticating and rampant speculation begin. Do already released films such as Jarhead, Crash, Cinderella Man, or The Constant Gardener have your support? Or are you holding out hope for upcoming pictures such as Munich (starring Eric Bana, left), Syriana, Memoirs of a Geisha, and Brokeback Mountain?
Tell us who deserves a date with Oscar, and who ought to get stood up, come March 5.
Comments (1-30) of 77
as long as crash is ignored, i’ll be happy.
easily the most overrated film of the year…
I’m holding out a lot of hope for “Brokeback Mountain”. I think seeing those cow-pokes a-kissin’ will make everyone cheer.. (or at least me..)
“Crash” is not an overrated movie. It’s by far the best movie I’ve seen this year. So many actors from the cast did such a great job.
Also, I think Terrence Howard should be rewarded at least a nomination for his work in either “Crash” or “Hustle and Flow”. I’m glad that he’s finally getting the recognition he deserves.
As for the females, this is Reese’s year. With a close runnerup coming from Charlize Theron.
Best Actor: Heath Ledger, David Straitharn, Phillip Seymour-Hoffman, Russel Crowe, Joaquin Phoenix
Best Picture: Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Syriana, The Constant Gardener, Memoirs of a Geisha
Best Actor: Heath Ledger (Brokeback M.), Jake Gyllenhall (Jarhead), Joaquin Phoenix(Walk the Line), Ralph Fienes (The Const.), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Best Actress: Charlize Theron (North Country), Felicity Huffman (Transamerica), Reese Witherspoon(Walk the Line), Claire Danes (Shopgirl), Rachel Weiszman (Constant Gardener)
I believe the Academy will remember Cinderella Man come nomination time, so don’t count Crowe, Zellwegger, and definitely not Paul Giamatti, who is due this time around. The DVD comes out very soon just in time for voters to remember how strong a picture it was. Plus its a bold Hollywood-style pic that they mostly approve of
I agree that “Crash” was/is somewhat overrated. I liked some of the performances (and they should be recognized), but the movie itself was (to me) preachy, annoying, and a little too convenient. I rarely like movies where ALL if the characters are supposed to be strangers yet their lives are always crossing. I have seen it done well, but not in this movie. My hope is that “Brokeback Mountain” will be as good as it is being hyped as being and that it goes on to win many awards. I loved the story and hopefully they have done something brave and stayed true to the words. I also hope Phillip Seymour Hoffman gets a nom (and win) – he is a truly amazing actor. I also loved Filicity Huffman’s EMMY speach so I’d love to see her win an Oscar. Thandi Newton in “Crash” should get the supporting actress nom and I would love to see Terrence Howard nominated for either “Crash” or “Hustle & Flow” – he was/is truly the breakout star of the year (for me).
I cannot wait to see Brokeback Mountain, The Family Stone, Syriana, The New World, and King Kong, but as of right now, these are my favorites (Not that I’m expecting all, or any of these to necessarily get nods):
Actor- Ralph Fiennes (Constant Gardener) and Viggo Mortensen (A History of Violence)
Actress- Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger) and Charlize Theron (North Country)
Director- George Clooney (Good Night, and Good Luck) and David Cronenberg (A History of Violence)
Picture- Good Night, and Good Luck, A History of Violence, The Constant Gardener, Crash
Best Picture – Brokeback Mountain
Best Actor – Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
Best Actress – Felicity Huffman – Transamerica
Best Supporting Actress – Thandi Newton – Crash
Best Supporting Actor – Paul Giammati – Cinderella Man
Best Director – Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
While there are a batch of strong contenders on the horizon, so I’m not making any predictions yet, I will very disappointed (even disillusioned) if Crash and a hearty bunch of its cast members aren’t nominated come Oscar time. It was one of the most powerful, thought-provoking, and different movies I have ever seen. Even though I haven’t viewed it since August (for the second time mind you), I am still thinking about it — and, still moved by it.
Granted most of the Oscar contenders will come out in the last weeks of Dec., but based upon what’s already come out and buzz I really hope that CRASH gets the nominations that it deserves. In particular, Matt Dillon and Terrence Howard were incredible. I also thought the score was fantastic. It’s one of the few movies that I have ever seen that really packed a genuine emotional punch.
I am also a huge fan of Amy Adams in Junebug. She plays a ridiculous character without making Ashley into a caricature. The script was great, too.
Hopefully, these older films (along with Cinderella Man) will still be in the minds of voters come Oscar season.
By picks… so far.
Best Picture: Junebug*, The Squid and the Whale, Pride & Prejudice, The Upside of Anger, Capote
Best Director: David Cronenberg, George Clooney, Gregg Araki*
Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman*, David Strathairn, Nicolas Cage, Lou Taylor Pucci, Cillian Murphy, Peter Falk, Jake Gyllenhaal
Best Actress: Joan Allen*, Julianne Moore, Gwyneth Paltrow, Charlize Theron, Felicity Huffman, Jennifer Connelly, Keira Knightley, Radha Mitchell, Glenn Close
Best Supporting Actor: Mickey Rourke*, Clifton Collins Jr., Matt Dillon, Terence Howard, Paul Giamatti, William Hurt, Peter Sarsgaard, Tom Arnold, Kevin Costner, Eugene Hutz
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams*, Maria Bello, Rachel Weisz, Hope Davis, Shirley MacLaine, Meryl Streep, Bonnie Hunt, Sandra Bullock
I have a good feeling that Brokeback Mountain (which I’ve seen — it’s excellent and I have already uttered the words I never thought I’d say: “Heath Ledger deserves an Oscar for this”), Syriana and Good Night and Good Luck will get appropriately awarded among the shoo-ins of the season like Munich. I also think that Hoffman and Huffman will get noms (which makes me worried that Letterman will host and say “Hoffman! Huffman!” over and over…)
My only concern is that A History of Violence might get overlooked, which was such a powerful, amazing little film on all sides. Plus, it would be nice to see the guy who did Scanners to get an Oscar nod.
From what I’ve seen so far this year I would nominate these films and actors:
Best Picture:Capote, Pride and Prejudice*, The Squid and the Whale, Crash, The Constant Gardner.
Best Actor:Philip Seymore Hoffman(Capote)*, Jeff Daniels(The Squid and the Whale), Jake Gyllenhall(Jarhead), Ralph Feinnes(The Constant Gardner),Russell Crowe(Cinderella Man)
Best Actress:Joan Allen*(The Upside Anger),Keira Knightley(Pride and Prejudice),Charlize Theron(North Country),Gywenth Paltrow(Proof)
Supporting Actor:Peter Sarsgaard*(Jarhead),Jamie Foxx(Jarhead),Matt Dillon(Crash),Donald Sutherland(Pride and Prejudice),Kevin Costner(The Upside of Anger),Paul Giammati(Cinderella Man)
Supporting Actress:Brenda Blethyn*(Pride and Prejudice), Laura Linney(The Squid and the Whale),Frances McDormand(North Country), Shirley McClain(In Her Shoes),Sandra Bullock(Crash),Hope Davis(Proof),Amy Adams(Junebug)
Nominations for movies I haven’t seen yet:
Best Picture:Brokeback Mountain, Walk the Line
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix(Walk the Line),Heath Ledger(Brokeback Mountain),Johnny Depp(The Libertine)
Best Actress:Reese Witherspoon(Walk the Line)
Supporting Actress:Michelle Williams(Brokeback Mountain)
BEST PICTURE:
-Brokeback Mountain
-The Producers
-Munich
-Memoirs of a Geisha
-Walk the Line
(Winner being either Brokeback Mountain, Munich, or Walk the Line)
BEST ACTOR:
-Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
-Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
-Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
-George Clooney (Syriana)
-Viggio Mortensen (A History of Violence)
(Joaquin will win)
BEST ACTRESS:
-Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)
-Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
-Charlize Theron (North Country)
-Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger)
-Claire Danes (Shopgirl)
(My heart is really really really pulling for Reese to win but somethings telling me that Felicity will prove to be pretty tough competition. As of now though, Id say Reese will win. Her performance in WALK THE LINE is inexplicabably phenomenal. Oscar-worthy in every aspect.)
I think that Thandi Newton will take Best Supporting Actress for her astounding performance in CRASH and that Paul Giamatti will finally win an Oscar (although it may be for a supporting role) for his deeply emotional and funny and heart-warming performance in CINDERELLA MAN.
And, expect Rob Marshall to be accepting an Oscar for his direction of MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA. I know friends who saw it and thought it was a beautiful, sometimes TOO graceful a film but his direction was right on the money.
Is that really Eric Bana? He looks terrible! Where’s the hunk of manliness who I saw in Troy and The Hulk? I miss that hunk.
Also, how can so many people be saying what they think the Oscar noms should be, when most of the movies they are listing aren’t even out yet? Just askin’.
Terrence Howard in ‘Hustle and Flow’ was absolutely mesmerizing. ‘Crash’ was involving but felt contrived and I haven’t seen ‘Brokeback’ or ‘Syriana’ yet.
‘The Constant Gardener’ is the best picture I’ve seen although ‘Jarhead’ was pretty good. ‘Cinderella Man’ was too stiff, too rote for me.
I liked the work by Joan Allen and Charlize Theron as best actress, either Sandra Bullock or Thandie Newton for supporting for ‘Crash.’
Supporting actor to Jamie Foxx for ‘Jarhead.’
I hope they remember “Cinderella Man” come Oscar time. It was easily one of the most overlooked films this year. I hope it will come in place of “The Constant Gardener” or “History of Violence”, two of the most over-acclaimed films of 2005. I would LOVE to see Kevin Costner lauded for his turn in “Upside of Anger” but that just ain’t gonna happen.
Cinderella was a late summer film, and it was neither box office success nor THAT big of critical acclaim. Crash I could see as a contender, as it had some terrific performances and plot elements. While the Constant Gardener was good, I do not believe it will be heavy enough to carry best picture category. Although, I do believe Fernando Mierelles has a shot for a two-fer. My predictions for Best Picture: Walk the Line, Brokeback Mountain, A History of Violence, The Producers, and Memoirs of a Geisha.
Actor: Jake Gylanhaal, Heath Ledger, Ralph Fiennes, Joaquin Phoenix & (winner) Phillip Streep Hoffman
Actress: Charlize Theron, Keira Knightly, Joan Allen, Gwenyth Paltrow & (winner) Reese Witherspoon
Picture: Pride & Prejudice, Crash, Constant Gardener, Memoirs of a Geisha & (winner) Brokeback Mountain
Know some of these won’t happen, but I’m sticking by them.
BEST PICTURE
Memories of Geisha (Looks amazing)
Munich (Spielberg + series subject=OScar
The New World (This or A History of Violence)
Walk the Line (Johnny Cash, need I say more)
BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee- Brockback Mountain (Movie looks great)
Terrance Mallick- The New World (Not too sure)
Rob Marshall- Memories of Geisha
Mike Newell- Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
(Should have been nominated for Four Weddings and Funeral, pluse the new mobie Goblet of Fire looks fantastic)
Steven Spielberg- Munich (Spielber, need I say more)
BEST LEAD ACTOR
Ralph Finnese- The Constant Gardener (Amazing)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman- Capote (Amazing actor)
Tommy Lee Jones- Three Burials of Meliquades Estrada
Heath Ledger- Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix- Walk the Line
BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Judy Dench- Mrs. Henderson Presenst
Felicity Huffman- Transamerica
Charliez Theron- North Country
Reese Witherspoon- Walk the Line
Ziyi Zhang- Memories of Geisha
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney- Goodnight and Good Luck
Jamie Foxx- Jarhead
Bob Hoskins- Mrs. Henderson Presents
Geoffrey Rush- Munich
Ken Watanabe- Memories Geisha
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Scarlet Johansson- Match Point
Catherine Keener- Capote
Gong Li- Memories Geisha
Francis McDermott- North Country
Uma Thurman- The Producers
I am excited that so many good films have been released so far, with many more to come out in the next month. It’s hard to say predictions for certain films that I have not seen yet, because we all know that films we get excited about can disappoint. I would love for CRASH to get nods for Best Picture and realistically for Best Direction (Paul Haggis) Best Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress for Thandie Newton (she should just win already because the scene with her in the car accident is literally breathtaking; nobody else has given that kind of work). Also I would love to see nods for A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE (direction and screenplay) and SIN CITY for visual art direction.
I’m not so sure yet. I have to see the movies first, but I think…..
Best Picture:
Match Point*
Brokeback Mountain
Munich
Rent (If it captures the same spirit as the stage show)
Capote
Best Direcotr:
Woody Allen (Match Point)*
Steven Speilberg (Munich)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Mike Newell (Harry Potter and The Goblet of Fire)
David Cronenberg (A HIstory of Violence)
Actor:
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)*
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Tom Wilkinson (Seprate Lies)
Eric Bana (Munich)
Terrence Howard (Crash or Hustle and Flow)
Actress:
Scarlett JOhansen (Match Point
Felicty HUffman (Transamerica)
Radha Mitchell (Melinda and Melinda)
Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger)
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
I also think Diane Keaton should be nominated for The Family Stone in the Supporting Actress race.
everyone seems to be leaving rent out of their lists. i saw an advanced screening, and i’m telling you – after you leave the theater, you won’t be able to think of anything else but this movie.
Shopgirl is by far one of the best written pictures I’ve seen. Very funny and true to the book. I wouldn’t count on a best actor Oscar for Steve nor a nomination, but he should be nominated for best screenplay. And for the love of all that’s holy don’t count out Claire Danes for best actress. She deserves a nomination if not the win. Hands down the best female performance on a realistic scale I’ve seen in years.
Joaquin Phoeni: I haven’t seen “Walk the Line” yet, but I can’t imagine him not receiving a nomination. He is so wonderful in everything and this movie looks amazing.
Russell Crowe: How can he be ignored in “Cinderella Man? Though he is so head and shoulders above the crowd of actors, a nomination may miss him b/c he’s expected to grind it out like a champion every time. Saw the movie twice.
Paul Giamatti: will win for Supporting Actor for this – b/c he should have been nominated for “Sideways” last year – this is part of the continuing mystical trend of actors being given consolation Oscars or noms for roles they did previously where they were deserved but received by more PC choices…example #1, Nicole Kidman received Best Actress for “The Hours”, when she should have won for “Moulin Rouge” the year before – example #2, Renee Zellwegger received Best Supporting Actress for “Cold Mountain”, when she should have won for “Chicago” the year before…
Brokeback Mountain: don’t know if this will win anything, but I read the story and – heartbreaker. The whole gay cowboy thing, can’t relate to, but this was a heartwrenching tale and I can see it winning something, maybe Larry McMurtry for adaptation.
Reese Witherspoon: always overlooked, a terrific actess, can’t pick one role she’s done I’ve ever been disappointed in – maybe she’s too pretty, too perky to win a ’serious’ award in Oscar-we-are-actors world
Bill
Murray
hey glenn. you need to see more movies if Crash was by far the best movie you’ve seen. granted, it’s been a weak year (and decade) for film. but Crash was forced, over-the-top – even ridiculous at times. Sandra Bullock? Matt Dillon was ten times as good in Drugstore Cowboy. and the scene where Ryan Phillippe kills the guy he picked up? absurd…
My favorite movie so far this year have been “A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE” and “CRASH” and both should definetely earn nods for some of its cast. As far as making predictions. I don’t do that till I see the movies. There are always surprising entries that go on to win the little guy. I bet you this year will be one of those surprise years… since the quality of movies was really low.
I hold hope for —
Walk the Line – Reese Witherspoon looks lovely in it. And Joaquin Phoenix is such an underrated talent.
Rent – I was never a fan of the stage show, but I don’t underestimate the cultural phenomena it became. It feels a little dated right now. Most of the East Village where it took place is now some of the priciest and may I say nicest place to live. (I prefer it.)
Brokeback Mountain
TransAmerica
and Memoirs of a Geisha.
Jarhead was a big snore. and I expect much better from Jake Gyllenhal in Brokeback Mountain… other than that, I will make up my mind as I see the films.
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